Unofficial Numbers

Independent data from the human resources company ADP estimated that the US private sector eliminated 32,000 jobs in September.

Context

Automatic Data Processing (ADP), one of the largest HR companies in the US, produces a monthly employment report that tracks private sector hiring based on payroll data from more than 26M US workers. This independent measure of the labor market became especially important when it was released last week, as the government shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing its official jobs report that was scheduled for last Friday. With federal data unavailable, investors and policymakers turned to privately produced economic reports like ADP’s to assess employment conditions.

Unexpected Decline

In the last two weeks, ADP and other independent sources have released data showing private employers cut 32,000 positions last month, defying economists’ expectations for an addition of 50,000 jobs. The contraction marked the largest job loss since March 2023.