Report Skipped

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced it will not release a standalone jobs report for October due to disruptions from the government shutdown.

Context

The monthly BLS jobs report is one of the US’ most closely watched economic indicators. It consists of two surveys: One that tracks employer payrolls to measure employment changes, and another that surveys households to calculate the unemployment rate and other workforce demographics. 

Federal employees who normally conduct the household survey were furloughed during the collection period because of the government shutdown, which lasted nearly six weeks and was the longest in US history.

Missing Data

The BLS stated on Wednesday that it cannot retroactively collect the household survey data that would normally provide October's unemployment rate.

The agency said it will include October's payroll numbers in the November report, but the unemployment rate for October will not be published because the shutdown prevented data collection. The BLS said it will release the delayed September jobs report on Thursday.

Delayed Release

The BLS also pushed back the November jobs report release date from December 5 to December 16.

This delay means the report will come out after the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year on December 9-10, leaving central bank officials to make the decision with less information about the labor market than normal. The most recent comprehensive employment data available for their December meeting will be from September.

Economic Impact

The cancellation marks the first time in decades that the BLS has skipped a monthly employment report. Economists, businesses, and policymakers will have to navigate economic decisions for several more weeks with an incomplete picture of the labor market.

Traders reduced their expectations for a December interest rate cut following the announcement, with the probability of the Fed keeping rates steady rising from around 50% to nearly 64%.