New Stats

Global child deaths under age 5 are expected to increase for the first time this century, while mass killings in the US dropped to their lowest level since 2006.

Context

Globally, child mortality has decreased every year since 2000 thanks to improved nutrition and better healthcare access. Since 1990, global child deaths have been cut by more than half. 

Separately, in the US, a database run by the Associated Press, USA Today, and Northeastern University tracks mass killings in America, which it counts as events where at least four people are killed within 24 hours, excluding the perpetrator.

Deaths Report

The Gates Foundation released a report this week that projected that 4.8M children under 5 will die in 2025, representing an increase of around 200,000 deaths compared to 2024 and the first time child deaths have increased since the year 2000.

The foundation attributed the rise to a 27% decline this year in global health aid from wealthy countries, including the US, UK, France, and Germany. Low- and middle-income countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, and Madagascar, are expected to see the largest increases, as they face mounting debt and fragile healthcare systems while combating pneumonia, diarrheal diseases, and malaria.

Long-Term Projections

The foundation estimated that funding cuts of only 20% would lead to an additional 12M child deaths by 2045. If cuts reach 30%, that number could rise to 16M additional deaths.

The Gates Foundation said that investing in primary healthcare and routine immunizations can prevent up to 90% of child deaths for less than $100 per person per year. The foundation also said every dollar spent on vaccines returns $54 in economic and social benefits.

US Killings Fall

Meanwhile, in the US, the mass killings database recorded 17 mass killings in the US so far in 2025, the lowest number since 2006 when data collection began, and a 24% decline from 2024. The highest number on record was 46 mass killings in 2019. 

Critics said that the decline may simply represent a return to average levels after spikes in 2018 and 2019 rather than evidence of lasting safety improvements. A criminologist at Northeastern University said the small number of mass killings each year means the data can swing sharply, and he would not bet on continued declines in 2026.