🌊 Election, Denied

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You probably don’t care what happens in Romania. However, the recent situation there is one of the most under-covered, significant, and interesting ones we have come across in our years of reporting on world politics. The story goes like this: 

In a Western country, an outsider populist ran for president. Polls showed he had no chance. Then, he won, shocking the establishment. Ahead of a second-round run-off vote, some polls showed him leading.

But just two days before the election, the country’s court deemed voters “misinformed,” canceled the result, and ordered a do-over.

This just happened in Romania – an EU and NATO country.

Did the court save democracy or destroy it?

Romania has emerged as one of the staunchest defenders of Ukraine, a neighbor to the north. The country has shipped weapons to Ukraine, helped maintain military equipment and train Ukrainian pilots, and enabled the transit of huge amounts of Ukrainian grain. This has helped solidify the nation within the “West,” a place where just 30 years ago it didn’t belong. 

Until 1989, Romania was one of the world’s most repressive dictatorships. Nicolae Ceaușescu’s communist regime (1965–1989) sought to imitate aspects of North Korea; implemented forced industrialization; allowed no dissent; and outlawed contraception and abortion in an effort to grow the workforce. Feared secret police maintained strict control, making opposition almost impossible. It was one of the poorest countries in Europe. 

Yet this system collapsed within just 10 days in December 1989, when protests spread like wildfire across the country. After fleeing the capital, Bucharest, Ceaușescu and his wife were captured and executed on Christmas day. 

In the years that followed, the communists rebranded. While maintaining significant influence, they also enacted democratic, military, and free market reforms to align Romania with Europe. In 2004, Romania joined NATO; in 2007, it joined the EU. 

Yet in 2023, one EU official told Roca that Romania may have been admitted “too soon.” While it became a “democracy,” political scandals and corruption were constants. In recent years, younger Romanians in particular have given up on the ruling elite. On a reporting trip to Romania in 2022, a Romanian teenager told Roca that he wished for the return of Ceaușescu’s regime. Amid this backdrop, anti-establishment politicians gained support.

Even so, heading into the first round of the nation’s two-round presidential elections, the center-left and center-right parties appeared poised to win. Further-right parties were polling next, followed by a handful of fringe candidates. 

One of those candidates – Calin Georgescu – was polling at 5% with a “Romania First” platform. That included sympathy for Romania’s fascist past and an explicitly anti-NATO stance, such as labeling a Romanian NATO base an "embarrassment" and dismissing NATO’s security guarantee. 

“The [NATO] shield is part of a confrontational policy. It’s not about peace, as those kissing the ring at various doors would have you believe,” he said. “No NATO country would be defended if attacked by Russia.”

It didn’t even seem worth asking what would happen if he won because the odds seemed so low. 

But he did. 

On November 24, the day of Romania’s first-round election, the Economist reported, “Exit polls suggest that Marcel Ciolacu, the centre-left prime minister, will go through to a run-off on December 8th. There polls suggest he will probably face Elena Lasconi, a centre-right candidate, who did better than expected.”

“But,” the article noted, “Calin Georgescu and George Simion, two hard-right candidates, are still in with a chance. Exit polls do not include votes from the hundreds of thousands of Romanians who live abroad. Both Mr Simion and Ms Lasconi are popular in the diaspora.”

That diaspora is not small: 3.1M Romanians work elsewhere in Europe, the most of any EU member group. And the diaspora liked Georgescu: As their votes came in, they overwhelmingly favored him. When the election was called, he finished first, with 22.94%. He would head to a run-off with the center-right candidate, who won 19.18%.

Many Romanians were in shock, particularly in the cities. Georgescu had reported no campaign spending and therefore bought no political ads targeting the cities. Elite Romanians’ question became: How could this have possibly happened?

Editor’s Note

Tons of feedback to Thursday’s email on the question of whether or not Trump should pardon Ross Ulbricht, as he’s pledged to do. If you missed it, read it here.

We’re very curious to read your thoughts on today’s story. Should the election have been canceled? Should Georgescu be allowed to run again? Was this interference or a losing elite’s last grasp at power?

Reply to let us know, and have a great weekend.

–Max and Max

RocaNews co-founders