🌊 How California’s Bullet Train Derailed

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By Max Frost

In November 2008, California voters approved a vision that promised to revolutionize American transportation: A gleaming bullet train that would whisk passengers between San Francisco and Los Angeles in just 2 hours and 40 minutes. Nearly two decades later, that dream has devolved into arguably the most spectacular infrastructure failure in American history.

Today, we look at how that became "the train to nowhere."

The California High-Speed Rail project emerged from decades of transportation planning, culminating in voters’ approval of Proposition 1A in 2008, authorizing $9.95B in bonds for the system. The timing seemed perfect: Barack Obama had just been elected on a platform of transformation, the financial crisis paved the way for major stimulus, and Europe and Asia had proved high-speed rail's viability. California would finally bring American transportation into the 21st century.

The 520-mile system would eliminate millions of car trips, reduce carbon emissions, create thousands of jobs, and position California at the forefront of sustainable transportation. Phase 1 would connect San Francisco to Los Angeles and Anaheim with up to 24 stations, while Phase 2 would extend north to Sacramento and south to San Diego, creating an 800-mile network rivaling anything in Europe.

The initial numbers seemed reasonable. The full Phase 1 was priced at $33B in 2008 dollars, with service beginning by 2020. The initial $9.95B bond would cover roughly 30% of costs, with federal grants and private investment filling the gap. When the Obama Administration's 2009 stimulus package unexpectedly included $8B for high-speed rail nationwide, California's dream appeared destined for reality.

But even then, the warning signs emerged. In the rest of today’s deep-dive, we look at how America’s first bullet train went so wrong.

Editor’s Note

Thanks for reading. We’re curious to hear from you all on this one: Should the high-speed rail project be completed or abandoned? Would a project like this succeed elsewhere in the US? Let us know by replying to this email.

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See you tomorrow,
Max and Max