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🌊 How Russia Could Invade The EU

Keir Giles explains the strategies he fears will lead Russia to invade the EU

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By Max Frost

In yesterday’s newsletter, we documented why Trump’s anti-Ukraine stance has become a popular position among many Americans. Today, we bring something very different: An interview with a man who believes Russia poses an existential threat to much of the western world.

Keir Giles is a Russian military expert at the Conflict Studies Research Centre, a military-focused research organization in the UK, and a consulting fellow at Chatham House, one of the world’s most prominent foreign policy think tanks. He’s the author of numerous books, including “Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You” and “Who Will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent.”

Giles is a prominent advocate for the belief not just that the US and NATO should support Ukraine, but that the cost of not doing so is a war between Russia and the rest of Europe. Today we share our conversation, edited for length and clarity. For context, we spoke with Giles after VP Vance criticized the European nations in Munich, but before Trump and Zelensky got into their Oval Office spat.

Keir Giles: All of the fundamental assumptions that European politicians have held for all of their lives about security, about defense, about the way the world works have been suddenly upended. And that's why they're in a panic scramble, because they see themselves as being in a very real sense squeezed between these two powers that are seeking to damage their interests. It's the onslaught from the east from Russia seeking to reestablish the Russian Empire…and on the other side, you have suddenly a new threat that is coming from the United States, including to its closest neighbors in North America, picking meaningless fights with Canada and Denmark.

Giles: So all of the sudden you've got everything that people relied on for a stable prosperous future is no longer there.

Max Frost: From my perspective, the writing on the wall for what's happening now has certainly been there since at least 2016 when Trump won. Has Europe taken any steps to derisk in that interim 8-year period? Because right now it seems like there's a rush, a panic when a lot of people saw this coming a long time ago.

Giles: That's exactly what the book that I wrote last year (“Who Will Defend Europe?”) is about. So it's a little exasperating when it seems to come as a huge surprise to everybody as if this was a bolt from the blue when I had the time to write a whole damn book about it last year. But even before that, as you say, since 2016, the pressure for Europe to look after itself and meet its own defense obligations has been growing.

Giles: That's not something that was invented by Trump and it's not something that's caused by Trump. There have been plenty of leaders from the United States beforehand that have said to Europe, “You've got to step up and take more of the burden,” but it's been consistently ignored because of this cozy assumption that the American security blanket would always be there. So now that it is being ripped away, you have this panicked reaction from European leaders. The depressing thing, of course, is it's not the first panicked reaction by European leaders.

Frost: So much has happened lately, between the launch of negotiations between the US and Russia, JD Vance’s speech in Munich, statements by Secretary Hegseth. What do you look at and which of those things do you view as most significantly shifting the landscape between the US and Europe?

Giles: I think it's a mistake to take any one of them in isolation because it is part of an overall picture and, as well as Trump, Vance, and Hegseth, we also need to think about what Marco Rubio has said after coming out of those discussions with Russia – about rehabilitating Russia and bringing it in from the cold, not as a pariah, a rogue state, an aggressor, but as he said, a partner to the United States. All of that is part of a package which is together showing Europe that the old certainties about how the world works and whether they would actually be secure and whether the United States would be a friend to Europe can no longer be relied on.

Frost: So what do you look for? Until this point, we've had the statements, we've had the clear political shift, in America's diplomacy, yet we haven't seen concrete action in the sense of a rolling back of commitments, moving troops out of Europe, that type of thing. What hypothetical next step could come here that would alarm you?

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Reader Replies

We received a record number of replies to yesterday’s newsletter about the Oval Office situation and Trump and Zelensky’s clash.

Gabriel in The Netherlands wrote:

Trump is a bully and Vance a boot-licking fool. The whole scene was staged. Zelenskyy refused to sign Trump's stupid deal (US gets all the resources without any security guarantees for Ukraine, as those have to be provided by Europe (that's what Trump said). My question is: then why is the US even there in the first place, and why doesn't Europe just get the resources if they have to provide the security guarantees???). The two try to enrage Zelenskyy by repeating some dumb stuff about saying thank you (which he has a hundred times) to then blame Zelenskyy for being a warmonger, so that they don't come across as greedy a**holes for wanting to push a completely illogical deal. Honestly, someone from the US please explain this deal to me. Through these actions, the US is going to lose a lot of influence in the years to come on the world stage.

Asher wrote:

I think it's funny that after all these years, there are still foreign leaders who don't think Trump is the real deal. Sorry to say but, he's not a caricature of himself... he is himself all the time.

I'm not sure what exactly Zelensky's plan was, but it seemed to involve some sort of guilt-trip that would coerce Trump into rooting for the underdog and guaranteeing America's support for Ukraine. But he should've known, Trump doesn't root for underdogs. Trump's philosophy is America first, always. He will look for the best deal for America, whether that's coddling Putin over the phone like a teenage girl or farming the hell out of Ukraine.

And I didn't like that Zelensky tried to play the moral high ground. Trump was right and successfully saw through the B.S... Zelensky is not trying everything he possibly can to stop the deaths. He wants to be known as the guy who orchestrated certain guarantees for Ukraine so that everyone will respect their nation, especially Putin. Zelensky is thinking about legacies and getting playing cards on the table of global nations, when he should be focused on the quickest way to peace so that there are no more deaths.

Whitney wrote:

I think Trump looked awful and disgraced America with his behavior. Zelensky is at war and doing what he can to protect his people. Trump is telling him to give in to Russia. How can we expect him (Zelensky) to act in any other way. But Trump is bowing down to Russia and sending the message that what they did and are doing is ok. I fear that if this were back during WWII, Trump would have put us on the wrong side of history.

I appreciate the journalism that ROCA is doing, as I agree this country has become so polarized because they only follow one media source that is heavily skewed. But while we should be coming together our country and government is being torn apart, I only hope we’ll be able to recover without too many losses.

Chase wrote:

I think Trump should have had a little composure instead of shouting at a world leader during a public broadcast. I also think a peace deal without security guarantees for Ukraine is an invitation for continued conflict. Isn't most of the money Congress has allocated for Ukraine gone to domestic arms manufacturing here in the US? Which is supporting Americans and American jobs.

Zelensky acted how most people being insulted to their face on national television would act.

Neither acted tactfully, neither got what they wanted, hopefully everyone comes back to the table and works something out.

Who knows maybe it's all apart of a plan the concocted this past week.

Chris wrote:

Two (three) impassioned people airing their differences in public is not a good idea. The fault of the argument lies in both camps.

Julie wrote:

My take on the zelensky/Trump team interaction in the white house yesterday was mixed. I thought zelensky was quite rude/disrespectful in his manurisms the entire meeting. I thought it was a miscalculation from Zelensky to behave in that way, both in front of the media and in front of the US "delegation". If he really wants help from the US, he's going to have to swallow a bit of his pride with this administration, unfortunately. I also think Zelensky is highly emotional around the Ukraine war, understandably, and this is becoming a weakness for him because he's unable to look at the situation clearly and make the calculations that will have to be made in order for the war to be negotiated to a conclusion or for it to last. This is a real liability for the Ukraine, despite it coming from a place of patriotism and absolute heartbreak over the death and destruction brought with the Russian invasion.

At the same time, I get where Zelensky is coming from. He's frustrated and terrified that the world power dynamics are shifting against him (US). He's also frustrated because Trump and his team don't speak in whole truths, they speak in exaggerated language and in some cases have repeated information that came direct from Putin and Morgan interviews with Carlson Tucker (such as Ukraine wanting to join NATO and zelensky being a dictator). In my mind, there's no doubt that Russia is the aggressor here and Zelensky is frustrated that the Trump administration spins facts in such a way as to not come right out and blame Russia.

But here's where it's even more complicated... Trump is actually being quite smart about not Insulting Russia in the press or in public. Working behind the scenes to establish a position of strength within the negotiations, and declining to allow Ukraine to join NATO. This is the only real path to lasting peace. If Trump insults countries like Russia, China and North Korea, he's just stoking the flames of war. This tactic must be excruciatingly painful for Ukraine given the number of lives that have been lost to the Russian invasion. But the stakes are as big as they come here... with north Korea helping Russia, I don't know if we've ever been this close to WWIII before.

All this to say, I think the meeting in the Oval quickly disintegrated into hurt feelings and posturing. Unfortunately for Zelensky, given how much money the US has invested into protections for his country, he does look ungrateful and extremely disrespectful. If you've observed Trump and his team for any amount of time, the reaction that ensued should have been predictable. I also think Zelensky will have to come to terms with the US not wanting a proxy war with Russia or North Korea. I think there's a reason why these types of conversations typically happen behind closed doors rather than in front of the press (that's ACTUAL deplalomacy!) and Trump team invited the press, expecting things to play out exactly the way they did, so the world could watch Trump and Vance spank Zelensky in front of the whole world or win the negotiation.

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Editor’s Note

Please send your thoughts on this interview by replying to this email. If it needs to be said, these are one man’s perspective. We’re working on a story documenting the other side, too, but given how much Ukraine is in the news right now, we figured it made sense to share this today.

We decided to delay this week’s Sierra Leone report to next week. Sorry to those who were expecting it. Also, here are our last five stories, in case you missed any:

See you tomorrow.

–Max and Max