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By Max Frost
As recently as January, it seemed virtually certain that Canada would soon have a conservative leader. The Conservatives were polling at nearly 45%; the Liberals, after a decade of Justin Trudeau’s leadership, around 20%.
Trudeau’s presence in Ottawa had become such a liability that his top officials were resigning. On January 6, he said he soon would, too. The Liberals seemed poised for a wipe-out of historic proportions.
But the Conservatives have since suffered a stunning collapse. New polling shows they are roughly tied or even trailing the Liberals. Per The Guardian’s latest poll of polls, the Liberals are leading and set to form a majority. 338Canada, a closely-watched aggregator of polls, now gives the Liberals a 55% chance to form a majority government. In January, their odds were less than 1%.
In the process of this, Canada’s left – which under Trudeau became known as a leader in global progressive initiatives – has become the country’s beacon of nationalism.
In today’s deep-dive, we examine how this happened and what it means for Canada and the US.
By late 2024, PM Trudeau’s approval rating was around 22%. After a decade of his leadership, Canadians faced high housing costs, high taxes, and what many considered unacceptably high levels of immigration. Amid the resulting displeasure arose Pierre Poilievre, a man who had his eye on the prime ministership for decades.
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Editor’s Note
Thanks for reading, everyone! We’d love to hear your thoughts on today’s report. Send them in here!
For anyone who’s missed our recent deep-dives, here they are:
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Enjoy the rest of your weekends!
–Max and Max
