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🌊 Inside America’s Broken Immigration System

Unlimited people can enter the country illegally; only a small number can be removed legally

Donald Trump

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By Max Frost

If there was one thing President Trump was clear about in his campaign, it was his pledge to deport millions of people living in the US illegally. He spoke about it at almost every rally; “CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY” was the second bullet on the 2024 Republican Party platform. Polls show this pledge had significant national support across socioeconomic and ethnic demographics. 

Since Trump took office, though, this pledge has proven impossible. The result is a growing sense among Republicans that America’s liberal-democratic status quo is actually inhibiting democracy. After all, the American people voted for deportations, and now the “system” is preventing it from happening. 

Republicans are becoming increasingly dismissive of the courts. As Trump said earlier this month, “We have thousands of people that are…some of the worst people on Earth…I was elected to get them the hell out of here and the courts are holding me from doing it.”

And in recent weeks, influential Republicans have begun calling for the suspension of habeas corpus, something that has only been done three times in US history. 

If you read left-leaning Big News, you’d think America is divided between an anti-democracy right and a pro-democracy left. If you read conservative news, you’d have the opposite takeaway: That an anti-Democratic left is obstructing the will of the people, first by letting in millions of illegal immigrants, then by preventing Trump from deporting them. 

In today’s deep-dive, we break down these arguments, the obstacles to Trump’s deportation agenda, and what could happen next.

The scale of Trump’s immigration agenda is unparalleled in US history. 

From 2021 to 2024 the US admitted 2-3M unauthorized border arrivals per year, while deportations ranged from ~60,000 to 270,000 per year. This imbalance contributed to a growing undocumented population and an expanding immigration court backlog, which now exceeds 3.7M cases.

If his administration were to conduct deportations at the rate that Biden’s did, it would take 74 years to deport just the people who entered the US illegally since 2021. Even at the fastest deportation rate in history – 409,000 in FY2012, under Obama – it would take 25 years. Again, that’s just to deport the 11M people who entered during the Biden presidency.

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Editor’s Note

As mentioned before, this situation is giving rise to calls for a suspension of habeas corpus. We’ll explore that in tomorrow’s newsletter. Thanks for reading today’s, and please send us your takes

And here are our five most recent stories in case you missed them:

Yesterday’s story on the Medicaid battle prompted a ton of responses. We’ve featured a selection below. 

Greg wrote:

Wow, the deep-dive journalism just keeps coming daily from Roca... such a breath of fresh air vs the MSM and your Medicaid story is excellent (and as close to unbiased as one can reasonably get).

On Medicaid, beyond the fraud, waste, and abuse (which Medicaid is not the only Federal area suffering such inefficiency), it really just comes down to Sources (funding) and Uses (spending).  Regardless of party, the vast majority of people want to support our fellow Americans who can't help themselves, yet few of us want to help those who won't help themselves.

In virtually every area of US government spend (at all levels), demands are basically unlimited yet funding is (and always will be, by definition) finite.  Our two-party system means every tradeoff is essentially adversarial on the how and the what, yet the why (the intended outcome for citizens) is largely similar.  In some ways, it's a bit silly... but the outcomes are critical.

We must return to self-sufficiency for those that are capable of being so, as most Americans are, while being even more supportive of those citizens who can't be. 

If someone were to raise my taxes to increase support for those who can't be self-sufficient while paying down our debt, I'm all in.  My family and myself would dislike the personal impacts, but we'd be more than willing to chip in.

However, as is the case of the past several decades in the US, if my increased tax payments were offset by equal or much greater spending than each passing year, I would fight tooth-and-nail in every possible venue against any increases whatsoever... giving an alcoholic more booze has never been a recipe for success, yet here we are as a society.

So, if you were to guess how this plays out, regardless of party, where this will end up, what would you say?  I fear the likely outcome is, once again, inevitable.  Anyone interested in a legit third-party of scale in the US yet?

Caleb from Indiana wrote:

I’m probably going to offend some people, but here it goes. Absolutely get rid of Medicaid! But that’s not the real issue. It’s that people live on the system. We found out we are having our first child, and went to the Dr. and they freaked out that we don’t have insurance. I have insurance that my employer pays for but my wife (stay at home wife) does not. They said look into Medicaid so I did just for laughs and we are not eligible because I Could get insurance through my employer. (Which we really couldn’t afford anyways) We have always just paid the cash discount you can get from any medical expense we have run into but they gave us the price and it was ridiculous. We ended up finding a midwife and are going to have a home birth. But I digress, looking into that, I’m realizing that if I quit my job and got a very low paying job (or no job) and got on food stamps and Medicaid I’d probably be money ahead! It’s ridiculous how many people do that and don’t move on with life. I understand there are people that truly need food stamps and healthcare but revamp the system. Bring medical costs to a realistic price that people can pay cash for. Then you don’t need health insurance! Put time limits and more requirements on getting food stamps. Make incentives to get OFF of them not ON them! The issue is with the system. You have to fix that first. 

And Sharon wrote:

Millions of people depend on Medicaid, myself included.  I have insurance, but am 82 years old, have only Social Security to live on.Medicaid helps with the extra costs on prescriptions and the co-pays on insurance.  Without it I would be deep in debt.  My son had to retire early at age 62 due to physical disability.  He's worked hard all his life and the jobs  he's had have taken a toll on his body.  He cannot apply for Medicare for another 6 months.  He was denied Medicaid and now has no insurance.  I worked for 62 years through good times and bad, lost my husband to Alzheimers, have physical disabilities and depend on SS and Medicaid.  I'm sure there are many people in similar or worse conditions and without Medicaid would have no coverage at all.  Stop giving the money away to politicians and crooks like Elon and support the American people who put you in office.

Great responses, keep them coming. See you tomorrow.

—Max and Max