🌊 Inside the India-Pakistan Crisis

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Editor’s Note: Readers of this newsletter will recall our article from last week about Muridke, a Pakistani town we just traveled through that is home to an alleged terror base. Wednesday morning Pakistan time, it was one of nine places bombed by the Indian military. Point being: Read Roca and you’ll be in the know!

By Max Frost

Since April 22, the India-Pakistan border has been on a knife’s edge. India was vowing to attack while Pakistan vowed to retaliate. For two weeks, the region waited – wondering if the nuclear-armed nemeses would go to war. 

Early Wednesday morning India/Pakistan time, the tension broke: India’s military announced that it had struck nine targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Hours later, Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian jets.

The strikes follow an attack in which terrorists – which India says are trained, funded, and supported by Pakistan’s intelligence services – killed 26 tourists in the India-controlled portion of Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan claim all of Kashmir; India controls around 55%, Pakistan 30%, and China 15%. 

In this deep-dive, we’ll look at why this conflict is happening and what could happen next.

The Kashmir conflict dates to 1947, when India and Pakistan gained independence from Britain: Kashmir, a mountainous territory famed for its natural beauty, was an independent princedom that both India and Pakistan wanted. Its population was majority Muslim (like Pakistan) but its prince was Hindu (like India). 

Before the prince could make up his mind about what to do, Pakistani tribesmen invaded Kashmir. India, in turn, offered to defend Kashmir – if the prince would join India. He accepted, the Indian troops fought off the invasion, and Kashmir joined India. 

Except India couldn’t conquer all of Kashmir, and the Pakistanis remained in control of around 30% of it. A heavily militarized line known as the Line of Control (LOC) was soon drawn between the Indian and Pakistani troops.

Thus began the India-Pakistan rivalry.

The sides have gone to war three times since: 

• In 1965, over an attempt by Pakistan to infiltrate forces into India-controlled Kashmir; 

• In 1971, while Pakistani troops waged war in Bangladesh, then part of Pakistan; and

• In 1999, when Pakistani troops again entered into India-controlled Kashmir. 

In each case, control of Kashmir has not changed. 

The sides have not fought a war since 1999, in part because the two sides’ nuclear arsenals – first openly declared in 1998 – have grown. Yet Pakistan has not given up the fight for Kashmir: Rather, instead of sending in troops, Pakistan has taken to supporting anti-India militants. These groups – which are confirmed to have received state funding and training – have conducted dozens of attacks on India since the 1990s, killing hundreds, if not thousands, of people. 

Despite the repeated terror attacks, India would only strike Pakistani Kashmir – not Pakistan proper, which was more likely to spark retaliation. 

In 2019, though, that changed: After an attack on a convoy killed 40 Indian soldiers, India bombed alleged terrorist training camps just a few hours’ drive from Pakistan’s capital. The airstrikes allegedly killed 350+ Pakistani militants. Pakistan, in turn, shot down an Indian jet and took the pilot hostage before releasing him in an apparent effort to reduce tensions.

In the last 15 years, India has since become wealthier and more powerful, having grown its military and economy and cultivated close ties with the US. Its politics have also become more Hindu-focused and nationalistic. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has channeled this to crack down on militants in Kashmir. He has repeatedly vowed to crush terrorism and has boasted about his success in doing so. 

The recent Kashmir attack therefore undermined Modi and shocked a country that has felt increasingly secure and successful. Adding to the insult of the attack was that the killers – who attacked tourists having a picnic – reportedly checked their religion and slaughtered the Hindus. 

Pressure in India for a strong response was therefore immense. 

Pakistan, meanwhile, has been struggling for years. 

While India has grown, Pakistan has bounced from one crisis to another. As recently as 2008, its per-capita income was higher than India’s. Today, it’s around half. Inflation is rampant, Pakistan’s currency has lost most of its value, and widespread poverty and unemployment have fueled anger at the country’s establishment – namely, the military.

The military has dominated Pakistani politics for most of the country’s history, either ruling directly or through politicians it has selected. In Pakistan, people speak quietly about “the establishment,” fearing that they could be disappeared by the army or intelligence agencies if they are openly critical. Anti-army sentiment is particularly high right now, as the country’s most popular politician – the populist Imran Khan – was overthrown and jailed after accusing the military of trying to run the country and undermine democracy. 

All of that leads to the current situation: A Pakistani military that wants to regain popularity will confront a growing, confident, and nationalistic India. 

On Tuesday, India said it struck nine “terrorist sites” within Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Its military said that these actions were “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature…India has demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution.”

Pakistan’s military immediately accused India of an unacceptable escalation: “This heinous provocation will not remain unanswered…Right now we are assessing the damages,” its Army spokesperson said. 

Hours later, Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian jets. It also accused India of targeting mosques and civilians, alleging that the Indian strikes killed eight people and injured 35. 

The truth isn’t yet clear. What is clear is that India targeted sites deeper within Pakistan than ever before, including in several large cities in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.

In recent weeks, Pakistani officials have said they would “respond very strongly” to any Indian strike, with one warning that Pakistan would use nuclear weapons if "there is a direct threat to our existence."

There’s a tall ladder of escalation that would have to happen before that, but today, India and Pakistan have moved up on a few rungs.

Editor’s Note

If you want our other deep dives on this conflict, read our report from Muridke – home to an alleged “terror HQ” – and our deep-dive on the history of the Kashmir conflict. We hope all our readers in that part of the world stay safe. 

Speaking of readers, a ton of responses to yesterday’s guest story by Jamie Towey of Aging with Dignity. Here are a few of those: 

James from Arlington, Texas wrote:

Matt wrote:

And Jerry from Virginia wrote:

Lastly, here are our latest stories in case you missed them: 

• Inside a Controversial AI Breakthrough

• Is the US’ freedom of the press on par with Sierra Leone’s?

• The 1944 debate that reshaped the global economy

• Roca Exclusive: Did a Tweet Get 8 Civilians Killed?

• A Muslim, a Jew, and a Catholic walk into a courtroom...

Thanks for reading. If you have thoughts on today’s article, reply to this email to share them with us. See you tomorrow.

—Max and Max