Private

Private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, according to payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP).

Context

Hiring this year has slowed from an average of just 62,000 per month, down from 186,000 jobs per month in 2024. ADP releases a monthly employment report that measures hiring and pay in the US private sector based on payroll data. The recent government shutdown disrupted the release of official economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for November, leaving the ADP report as one of the few up-to-date indicators available to policymakers.

Jobs Cut

Private employers eliminated 32,000 positions in November, the largest decline since early 2023, according to ADP data released on Wednesday.

The figure represented a decline from October's revised gain of 47,000 jobs and fell short of economists expectations for a 10,000-job increase. The November decline also continued a trend of weakness in the private sector – in four of the last six months, private employers have cut more jobs than they’ve added.

Small Businesses Led Decline

Small companies – companies with fewer than 50 employees – led the decline, cutting 120,000 jobs in November, the largest one-month decline for that category since May 2020. Larger firms hired workers during the same period, but not enough to offset losses.

ADP’s chief economist said small businesses were "weathering an uncertain macro environment and a cautious consumer."

Fed Implications

The weak report could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates at its final meeting of 2025 next week. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates by another quarter percentage point, which would mark the third consecutive rate cut, but Fed policymakers remain divided on the decision.

The BLS November jobs report, originally scheduled to be released on December 5, will now be published on December 16 – after the Fed meets for the last time this year.