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🌊 Revenge of the Hipsters
Through analysis of voter data and interviews with Mamdani voters, we explain Zohran Mamdani’s stunning victory
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By Max Towey
In February, Zohran Mamdani was a nobody. A poll showed he had just 1% of support in the Democratic primary for NYC mayor with eight candidates ahead of him. Indeed, the Muslim Uganda-born socialist with an Africana Studies degree from Bowdoin College seemed a longshot to win the most important primary in America’s largest city.
But last night, just four months later, Zohran did the unthinkable: He beat former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo by 70,000 votes, leveling a New York political dynasty backed by a record-setting $25M Super PAC. Now Zohran is the odds-on favorite to be the Big Apple’s next boss.
How did he do it? That’s where it gets interesting.
With policies like rent freezes, city-owned grocery stores, and a $30 minimum wage, you might assume that Mamdani won the primary on the backs of low-income voters. But the opposite is true: He won in spite of them.
In NYC’s low-income areas – precincts with a median income under $62,800 – Cuomo beat Mamdani by 13 points. In medium-income areas – ones where the median income is between $62,800 and $117,600 – Mamdani beat Cuomo by 10 points. Where Mamdani was strongest, however, was in the areas with a median income above $117,600. He won those precincts by 13 points.
Cuomo won only two boroughs: Staten Island, which Trump carried last November, and the Bronx, which is the city’s poorest. Meanwhile, Mamdani dominated in Brooklyn, home to famously progressive and artsy neighborhoods like Bushwick. He also dominated among highly-educated voters: According to the final Emerson College poll, Mamdani beat Cuomo among college graduates, 62% to 38%. Among voters without a degree, Cuomo led 61% to 39%.
How did he build this coalition in just four months? Enter, Mom-dani.
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Editor’s Note
We’re very curious to hear your thoughts on this one and would love to hear from our New Yorkers. Is Zohran’s victory a turning point for the Democratic Party? And if this really is their Tea Party moment, what comes next? Send in your thoughts here.
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Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.
–Max and Max