🌊 Roca Visits Wisconsin’s Swing County

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Every swing state has “bellwether” counties, politically mixed places that usually vote as the state does. In Pennsylvania, a key one was Bucks County, northeast of Philadelphia; in Wisconsin, there’s Door County, a 40-minute drive northeast of Green Bay.

Locals told us that Door County is the “Cape Cod” of the Midwest: Naturally beautiful and home to quaint waterfront towns lined with local businesses and marinas. It’s situated on the top half of a peninsula sticking into Lake Michigan. After crossing a certain latitude in Door County, there are no chains or corporate development: Just small towns, farms, and forests.

Door County has voted for the winner in every election since 2000: George W. Bush twice; Barack Obama twice; Donald Trump once; Joe Biden once. In Sturgeon Bay – Door County’s largest city, population 9,646 – people told us that this year is a complete toss-up. Throughout the town, we noticed ourselves that there were an almost equal number of pride flags or Harris signs and Trump signs.

A local retired businessman named Wayne told us that to understand the area, we needed to understand the people: Classic, hardworking Midwesterners. Among those people, he said, “There’s a good chance the handshake is worth more than the contract.”

“The honesty is wonderful; the genuineness…people up here will talk about a lot of things but it’s ‘I went fishing.’ It’s not ‘I own this, I do that.’ Unless you ask, you’re not going to get that most of the time.”

“They’re not here to impress the world. They’re here to just have a good life.”

Nearby, Brad, a politically-minded bartender at a local establishment called the Door County Fire Co., told us that despite the looming election, “People don’t talk about politics.” This was something we had found ourselves in Wisconsin: Unlike in Pennsylvania, where everyone wanted to share their thoughts, people here were much more hesitant to.

Brad said something others in Door County would reiterate: Housing prices are the biggest issue. In the last year, housing prices in Wisconsin have risen faster than in any other swing state and at nearly double the national average. In places like Door County, wealthy people have bought up local homes to rent out or use for vacations, pricing out locals.

“That’s basically priced out people that are trying to come up here that work in the service industry and are trying to get a starter house,” said Brad, who spoke from experience. “Five years before Covid, you could get a nice house for $150,000. Now, a starter house starts around $300,000. And that’s four years’ time – that’s a big jump.”

Despite Biden being in charge during that period, he believed Harris will be “pretty tough to beat” and that became even more true after she picked Tim Walz: “He looks like everybody’s uncle that comes to the barbecue every summer. And just how he acts – he’s a pretty safe bet.”

“I think for the Midwest: Military vet, then he was an assistant coach for the football team…He's a hunter. He's a fisherman…eats what he kills and he's responsible for it.”

Brad summarized: “Every good Midwestern guy dreams to do that.”

Several miles away – and past dozens of both Trump and Harris lawn signs – we met a Roca reader named Jesse who works as a mechanic in Sturgeon Bay and lives surrounded by dense forest at the end of a dirt road. He had a different view.

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