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🌊 MAGA’s Voluntary Recession
MAGA leaders say a recession may be a necessary price to pay
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By Max Frost
On Monday, the stock market had one of its worst days in recent history, wiping out over $1.7T in market value. Traders cited two causes: Uncertainty around tariffs and Trump’s refusal to rule out a recession.
The former point relates to last week, when Trump, for the second time in three months, imposed and then withdrew 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the US’ top two trading partners. The second relates to statements made on Sunday by Trump to Fox News host Maria Bartiromo, who asked Trump if the US was headed for a recession.
"I hate to predict things like that,” Trump said. “There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing."
"It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us."
Critics seized on the statements and ensuing market sell-off to claim that Trump was fumbling a strong economy inherited from Biden. As MSNBC headlined, “Trump has hit the accelerator on the GOP’s cycle of economic destruction.”
Many Trump voters are undoubtedly unnerved by a potential recession. Yet others, particularly those who buy into Trump’s populist MAGA movement, are not. In fact, this is explicitly what many of them want.
A common belief about the MAGA movement is that it doesn’t care about the deficit. As proof, people point to Trump’s tax cuts, his first-term pandemic-spending blowout, and repeated pledges to eliminate taxes on tips and social security.
Trump may not care about the deficit. But others in his movement do, including Steve Bannon – arguably MAGA’s ideological leader – and Scott Bessent, Trump’s treasury secretary.
According to this pair and many others, the United States is already in an economic and financial crisis. In today’s deep dive, we explain their logic – and why some think a recession is the only way out of it.
The rest of this report is for paid subscribers, who fund our journalism. If you start a two-week free trial today, you’ll be automatically entered to win a free year. Once you sign up, you can access all of our articles here!
Editor’s Note
What do you all think? Is the economy strong or weak? Are the risks of Trump’s policies worth it? Let us know by replying to this email. We’re very eager to read your thoughts.
In case you missed any of our last five stories, here they are:
Reader Replies
We were thrilled to see how many of you enjoyed yesterday’s story on where Ukraine aid is going. Tons of replies, some of which are featured below.
Dustin wrote:
Stop funding the military operation. It creates inflation (devaluation of our money), which in turn means that every single tax-paying american (or any american with any amount of money in their bank account) is paying for this war via the Fed printing money. I’d be curious to know what percentage of the American population makes up the “US defense manufacturers; the US military; the Ukrainian government; NATO allies; international aid organizations; and energy and infrastructure companies.” I’d gamble to say it’s not more that 2-3% of the American population that is helped here. SO the other 97-98% is paying the bill for this war! Apparently food is up 70% since 2020. Inflation is our war.
David from New Jersey wrote:
Great breakdown of US spending on Ukraine. With the majority of spending going toward US businesses, it draws a parallel to the idea of giving wealthy people a tax break so they can invest those earnings into entrepreneurial ventures to stimulate the economy and job growth. The latter is viewed as a typical Republican policy whereas Ukrainian aid is Democratic policy. This economic comparison only changes who is benefiting though. Under a microscope, the workers at defense companies are paying taxes with a majority of those taxes going toward defense spending, which is money going back into their pockets after trickling down. Both ideas are missing something. Federal taxes should be going toward programs that benefit the US as a whole. Programs such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, defense*, and domestic emergency aid. (*Defense = defense. Not attack) Also, an item I wish was covered in the article is the level of surplus and inventory the US has or is giving to other countries. Is the amount the US spending properly matching supply and demand? Or is it wasteful, like how grocery stores are kept fully stocked, resulting in lots of food waste?
Amene from Reston, VA wrote:
Honestly I wasn’t super surprised that most of the money goes to US weapon companies. War is a huge money maker. I live in Reston VA where I drive to work everyday passing multiple weapon companies. The DMV bubble you talked about in a previous article is very dependent on arms aid. I believe our local economy would tank if foreign wars went away. The Trump administration stopped all foreign aid except to Israel and Egypt. It would be interesting to find out where our money goes to them. I would like to thank you for giving me confidence in the news again. I usually lean more left but the democrats have turned me off and Trump scares me. Keep up the great reporting
That’s all for today. Again, please send in those replies to today’s story. We want to know how you all see the world.
–Max and Max