🌊 Israel-Iran Conflict Begins

Did someone forward you this? Subscribe here free!

By Max Frost

Around 3 AM local time Friday morning, Israeli missiles crashed into military bases across Iran, potentially beginning a war that was decades in the making. 

Per initial reports, the missiles struck six military sites and several secure compounds housing top officials and commanders. Reports suggested that the former targets were related to Iran’s military and nuclear program while the latter housed assassination targets, including Iranian generals and nuclear scientists. Sure enough, within an hour, the AP reported that the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps – its most elite military body – had been killed. President Trump had the prior commander, Qasem Soleimani, killed in an airstrike in January 2020. Also confirmed killed were Iran’s overall military commander and his deputy, complicating Iran’s ability to retaliate, and two of the country’s top nuclear scientists.

For years, Israel has been warning that it would strike Iranian nuclear facilities if Iran got too close to a bomb. Iran’s had a dual insurance policy against that: Its own formidable military arsenal – Iran is one of the Middle East’s leading military powers – and its proxies, most notably Hamas and Hezbollah. These two groups, particularly Hezbollah, threatened to unleash their vast Iran-provided stockpiles of rockets and other weaponry upon Israel if Israel attacked Iran. 

Between October 2023 and November 2024, though, Israel essentially destroyed those threats, leaving Iran vulnerable. That left two more obstacles between Israel and Iran’s nuclear facilities: Iran’s ability to retaliate, and diplomacy. 

Israel spent much of 2024 degrading the former, most notably in April and October, when it conducted airstrikes on Iranian air-defense systems that were meant to protect critical infrastructure, including nuclear sites. 

Meanwhile, Trump’s election reduced the diplomatic obstacles: While Trump has said he did not want the US to get involved with any Middle East conflicts, he also positioned himself as a closer Israeli ally than Biden and vowed to give Israel the weaponry and intelligence it needed to secure itself. 

Given all of this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apparently thought in April that the time was right to strike, and that month, he reportedly asked Trump for America’s backing in attacking Iranian nuclear sites. Trump – after the lobbying of intervention-skeptic administration officials like Tulsi Gabbard – declined, and told Israel that he would pursue diplomacy instead. 

The US and Iran have since been in negotiations over a new nuclear deal. While initial talks showed progress, enrichment – the process of purifying uranium for a bomb or nuclear power – emerged as a sticking point. The US (and Israel) demanded that Iran cease all enrichment; Iran refused, demanding that it be allowed to enrich uranium to levels less than that needed for a bomb. The US said that left Iran one step too close to getting a bomb.

Throughout these talks, Trump threatened strikes against Iran if it refused to sign a deal. Yet reports also emerged last week that he was considering allowing Iran to keep some enrichment capabilities, something Israel has said it could not tolerate.

Earlier this week, rumors began to emerge that Israel was preparing a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. On Wednesday, the US withdrew non-core personnel from Iraq, warning that a conflict may erupt in the Middle East. 

On Thursday, the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, announced that Iran was not complying with the non-proliferation treaty, the first time it had done so in 20 years. The statement implied that Iran had taken steps toward developing a bomb. 

Hours later, on Friday morning Iran time, Israel announced that it had launched “pre-emptive” strikes on Iran. 

In announcing the strikes, Netanyahu claimed that Iran had “taken steps that it has never taken before — steps to weaponize this enriched uranium.” He said the conflict would last “for as many days as it takes.” By its end, Israeli officials said, Iran would no longer pose a threat to Israel. In the meantime, though, they warned Israelis to prepare for retaliation.

Within minutes of the strikes, Secretary of State Marco Rubio put out a statement that said the US did not participate in the attacks: 

Iranian officials, meanwhile, warned that they would do just that, vowing that the US and Israel would "receive a forceful slap.” They said they were preparing for “definite” retaliation.

The reaction among US officials was mixed. 

Many Republicans immediately asserted support for Israel. 

“Game On. Pray for Israel,” tweeted Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

“Israel is acting to defend themselves, and we should stand with them,” wrote Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).

“Iran is the world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism, has the blood of thousands of Americans on its hands, and is rushing to build not only nuclear weapons, but also missiles that can strike the United States. We back Israel to the hilt, all the way,” wrote Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR).

Yet some Republicans, and many Democrats, were less enthusiastic.

Hours before the strikes, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) tweeted, “A war with Iran would make Iraq look like a skirmish. If your goal were to bankrupt America and destabilize the world, dragging us into another endless Middle East war would be the way to do it.”

And Chris Murphy (D-CT) said Israel’s attack “risks a regional war that will likely be catastrophic for America…the region risks spiraling toward a new, deadly conflict.”

Iran was yet to respond as of this writing (12 AM Eastern Time), and its response – and Israel’s to that – will shed light on where the conflict is headed. In the meantime, though, one question is how far Israel seeks to go: Will it limit itself to trying to destroy Iran’s nuclear arsenal? Or will it seek to bring down Iran’s entire Revolutionary regime? 

An hour after the strike began, Michael Oren – a prominent Israeli historian and former Israeli ambassador to the US – predicted the latter on a livestream. 

“[My] gut feeling,” he said, “was that [Israel] would bring down the regime.”

Whether he’s right or wrong, it’s clear that on Friday morning, the Middle East entered a dangerous and uncertain new phase.

Editor’s Note

Thank you for reading today’s installment. Do you support Israel’s strikes? Oppose them? Do you think they’ll try to bring down Iran’s regime? Will they succeed? Let us know by replying to this email.

Also, we’re running a subscriber-only deep-dive this weekend on the history of the Iranian revolutionary regime and how Iran went from America and Israel’s closest Middle East ally to their greatest opponent. Subscribe here so you don’t miss it.

Interested in reading more? Find our most recent stories below:

• The Palantir List

• The Co-Opting of Joe Rogan

• The Art of the Grift

• Inside the New War on Obesity

• Project 2025: Trump’s Playbook?

Mixed reactions to yesterday’s article on Palantir. We share a few of those below.

Kristine wrote:

Greg from New Jersey wrote:

And Margie wrote:

Thank you all for reading, and we’ll see you back here tomorrow.

–Max and Max